How Will the Next U.S President Impact the Canadian Economy?

By Ben Saltiel

Five presidential hopefuls continue to fiercely battle through their respective primaries in an attempt to garner their party’s nomination. A Republican field that at one time contained 17 candidates, making it the largest presidential field in the history of the GOP, are down to their final three candidates : Donald Trump, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is competing against the surging Bernie Sanders campaign in her historic bid to become the first Female American President.  While 11 months remain before any candidate can start their tenure as Commander and Chief, it is not too early to consider how each party can impact their Canadian neighbours to the North. Much of the focus of this presidential campaign has revolved around illegal immigration and foreign affairs; however, this article will primarily focus on the potential economic impact the next U.S president will have on the Canadian economy.  

January saw the TSX reach its lowest level since July 2013. The Canadian Central Bank dropped its growth forecast from 2% to 1.4% and the price of oil went below $30/barrel. Forecasts estimate that by the end of 2016,  the price of oil will hover around $40 a barrel. With the Canadian economy being heavily reliant on oil exports, the drop in the price of oil and the failure to pass the Keystone XL definitely contributed to these economic woes. The fact that the pipeline project never materialized was a major blow to the Conservative who saw the 8 Billion dollar US deal as a major job creator despite the potential environmental ramifications. Against Stephen Harper's best efforts, sitting President Barack Obama exercised his executive order to veto and reject the Keystone pipeline project and if a Democrat is elected in 2016 you can likely expect that they will replicate their predecessor’s actions.